Monday, April 10, 2006

Who Can Topple Texas? Kahne Can [NASACAR Notes for 4/10/06]

Texas Motor Speedway wins again. For consistently producing quality races in it's short existence as a NASCAR Cup track, TMS is proving itself a worthy two-race track and beginning to look like an Atlanta or Charlotte (Lowe's) on the schedule. I don't think it is the least bit surprising that all of those tracks (AMS, LMS, and TMS) are owned by SMI (Speedway Motorsports Incorporated, the company run by Bruton Smith). When I think of my personal track experiences and races I have watched, the SMI tracks (like Bristol or Lowe's) stand out as exceptional experiences. I am certainly not downplaying the main "competition" (and NASCAR's relative, International Speedway Corporation (ISC)), but SMI has it's act together with the aforementioned tracks (including Las Vegas, not mentioned).

This posting on TMS is certainly intended to be more focused on the weekend's action in the Cup and Busch series races than my lead-in discussion of the SMI-ISC track comparison, but I do think the changes in tracks and scheduling over time make for an interesting topic in and of itself. Some time ago, I wrote in the ONMC (Official NASCAR Members Club) Forum regarding the lawsuit filed last summer by independent track Kentucky Speedway, just down the road from here (Cincinnati) in Sparta, KY. The location of the track does make a lot of sense, in that it covers the Cincinnati, Louisville, and even Indianapolis metro areas. The fact that it overlaps Indianapolis (and Indianapolis Motor Speedway) is a blessing and a curse, especially given that NASCAR (and former CEO Bill France, now ISC's head) hasn't given KS any consideration as a Cup venue. The Busch and Truck series races there have been highly successful, and, in my opinion, are very reminscent of the kind of action you see at Texas, Lowe's, Las Vegas, etc. (the intermediate tracks). While the track seating is not exceptionally large (yet), the venue in Sparta could certainly be expanded to well over 100,000 seats (from the current capacity near 70,000). The Waltrips (Darrell, in particular) have been big supporters of Kentucky Speedway, including Darrell acting as a design consultant in making the infield area (garages, pits, etc.) and the track itself top-notch. If you're not convinced of KS a driver-friendly venue, where do most of the teams do their Cup testing for the intermediates? Here, of course, because it has the same characteristics of the other 1.5-milers. I almost certainly will post more about Kentucky Speedway and the ongoing legal battle with NASCAR / ISC (as it is on the radar but out of the spotlight right now); however, it's time to talk about Texas.

Kasey Kahne was the deserving winner of Sunday's Nextel Cup race, but I really wish that two of the stronger cars in this one (Greg Biffle early and Carl Edwards in the middle) were still in it at the end. No doubt, Kahne had one of the strongest cars in the field, as he led laps including the most important last one. The most impressive part about Kahne was how he stretched out the lead on the last restart to not even be challenged by either Matt Kenseth (second) or Tony Stewart, who once again led the most laps but finished third.

The biggest controversy in this race happened early with Kurt Busch's "helpful" push of Biffle into the wall, ending his day and dropping him further in the standings (now all the way back in 23rd and 406 points out of first). Biffle had every reason to be mad with Busch's blatant reckless driving, but he also now has concern to be on the outside looking in at the Chase come September.

Roush teammate Carl Edwards looked strong as well, but somehow his car got loose down the backstretch, and he wrecked by himself into the inside wall. The Edwards' crash could have been much worse, considering other contenders (like Stewart) were around him at the time and narrowly avoided crashing with him. Edwards, like Biffle, looks to be a non-factor for this year's Chase as well unless things start to come together soon (now in 22nd, 401 points behind first).

While this was a bad day for some, it clearly was a good day for the rookies. Denny Hamlin ran strong (leading laps) in finishing fourth. Fellow rookies Martin Truex Jr, Reed Sorenson, and Clint Bowyer ran respectably as well, finishing in 8th, 13th, and 19th, respectively. All four of these drivers moved up at least three places in the standings, with Hamlin moving up most (nine places) from 23rd to 14th with his top 5 finish. Score one for the veterans in this one as well, as Bobby Labonte cracked the top 10 for the second time this season (in 10th) and Mark Martin notched another top 10 finish (ninth).

All in all, Texas scored another nice race, and the action was up to the standard we have expected in Cup racing on the intermediate tracks of NASCAR. With Kahne's win, 11 races and 11 different winners -- the no-repeat streak stays alive.

The Busch series race on Saturday was a bit of a contrast to Sunday's Cup race, but the outcome was exactly as the all races have come to be scripted this year to date. In seven Busch races, there have been seven different winners, and, of particular note (and growing distaste of many), all of the winners are Cup regulars. The roll call of winners is a "who's who" of the Nextel Cup ranks: Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, Jeff Burton, Kyle Busch, and (this week's winner) Kurt Busch. Of these drivers, Biffle, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch are the only regulars on the Busch series schedule, but, as evidenced by their success in the Cup series, they really don't have that much to prove at this level. Hamlin probably is most benefiting from the extra seat time, but do Biffle, Busch, et.al. really need it? Excluding the winners noted already, Cup regulars running full-time Busch schedules include Kevin Harvick (the points leader), Hamlin (2nd), Clint Bowyer (3rd), J.J. Yeley (4th), Biffle (5th), Ky. Busch (6th), Carl Edwards (11th), and Michael Waltrip (23rd).

"Buschwhacking" is becoming an undeniable reality that fans, fellow drivers / teams, and team owners either love or hate. I'm not sure what the fans' consensus is, but I would guess that interest in Busch racing is higher when Cup drivers they like are involved. Most "purists" (if they exist in NASCAR) probably frown on what is happening, but, at the same time, there are no rules to prevent it. I personally understand completely why Cup regulars want the extra practice time at tracks where they are also racing their Cup cars, and, given the further curtailing of practice sessions as governed by NASCAR officials, they have little alternative to gain a competitive advantage if they don't do it.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

The Chase is Taking Shape (with a Few "Shuffles") -- Any Surprises?

The last time I posted on the subject of the Chase was after the Atlanta race, before the short-track effect could occur (back-to-back Bristol and Martinsville weekends). Here was the top 10 list after Atlanta (first 4 races):

Pos. / Driver / Points / Pts. Behind [after first 4 races]
1 Jimmie Johnson 690 Leader
2 Kasey Kahne 640 -50
3 Matt Kenseth 612 -78
4 Mark Martin 600 -90
5 Casey Mears 554 -136
6 Jeff Gordon 539 -151
7 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 534 -156
8 Kyle Busch 530 -160
9 Dale Jarrett 490 -200
10 Clint Bowyer 471 -219


I mentioned then as I will mention now that the top 4 spots looked like they were in pretty good shape given the past two years of Chase history on their side (only Kasey Kahne, as a rookie in 2004, failed to make the Chase from a position that high). The 5th through 8th spots looked pretty good, too, although Casey Mears was clearly the biggest surprise in that range. Again, historically, those positions have made the Chase (with only two years of data as a basis).

Through 6 races (after Martinsville), the top 4 drivers remain the same, but their order is a little different (Martin up to 2nd and Kahne down to 4th). Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon have solidified their spots, moving up closer to the top and running stronger. Tony Stewart jumped back onto this list after sitting in 12th only a few races earlier (California and Las Vegas problems created a hole to climb out but not unusual for early season in Stewart's career). Elliott Sadler has been quietly running better as well, including a top 10 at Martinsville. Casey Mears is now the biggest question mark; after notching top 10's in each of his first three races, he has failed to run better than 20th since. More analysis follows the list below...

Pos Driver Points Bhnd/Wins/Top5/Top10
1 Jimmie Johnson 933 Ldr 2 4 5
2 Mark Martin 874 -59 0 1 4
3 Matt Kenseth 873 -60 1 3 3
4 Kasey Kahne 832 -101 1 3 4
5 Kyle Busch 832 -101 0 2 4
6 D Earnhardt Jr 824 -109 0 2 3
7 Jeff Gordon 814 -119 0 3 3
8 Tony Stewart 791 -142 1 3 3
9 Elliott Sadler 735 -198 0 1 2
10 Casey Mears 724 -209 0 1 3
--- (Top 10) ---
11 Dale Jarrett 716 -217 0 0 2
12 Kevin Harvick 699 -234 0 1 2
13 Ryan Newman 668 -265 0 1 2
14 Kurt Busch 661 -272 1 1 1
15 Brian Vickers 650 -283 0 0 2
16 Clint Bowyer* 644 -289 0 0 1
17 Jamie McMurray 623 -310 0 0 2
18 Greg Biffle 615 -318 0 0 2
19 Carl Edwards 602 -331 0 2 2
20 M. Truex Jr.* 597 -336 0 0 0
21 Jeff Burton 591 -342 0 1 2
22 J.J. Yeley* 589 -344 0 0 1
23 Denny Hamlin* 582 -351 0 0 1
24 Reed Sorenson* 577 -356 0 0 1
25 Joe Nemechek 555 -378 0 0 0
26 Kyle Petty 539 -394 0 0 1
27 Robby Gordon 534 -399 0 0 0
---(within 400 points)---

Mathematically, 27 drivers are still Chase eligible right now, with Robby Gordon on the lowest edge at 399 points behind. The "hope" has to remain for these guys (at least for a few more races) as Matt Kenseth was in 21st place, 383 points behind at this point last season. Kenseth had to run a great stretch until the last race before the Chase (Richmond) to make up that sizeable deficit ... a hard task for the guys noted above. Realistically, he never did make up the entire gap, as he fell further behind the leader(s) but got closer to the final 10th place spot (over 650 points back, in 9th). Two years ago, Mark Martin was the lowest ranked outside the top 10 who ultimately made it (in 14th, 221 points back).

The real question then becomes how far ahead will the leader(s) be from the rest of the pack and will the 400-pt rule matter versus the top 10? In 2004, only seven (7) drivers were less than 400 points behind leader Jeff Gordon after the 26th race. In 2005, the spread was even worse with only three (3) drivers less than 400 points behind Tony Stewart, as he was lapping the field at 180 points ahead of Greg Biffle in second place. In 2006, Jimmie Johnson is starting the season off looking like the dominant player once again (much like he looked in the early going last year) in racking up top 5 finishes (4 through 6 this year and last year). The only difference between Johnson in 2006 and at the same point in 2005? He didn't miss a top 10 finish in 2005
until the 8th race (at Phoenix). Johnson finally began "cooling off" some into the summer months as Biffle was winning (starting at Texas, winning 4 of the next 9 races through Michigan) and then Stewart picked up where Biffle left off (winning at Infineon, with 5 of 7 races as wins through Watkins Glen).

The remainder of the "Race to the Chase" is clearly still up in the air, but we do have 6 of the 26 (almost one-quarter of the schedule) done until the "playoff" begins. Someone could go on a Stewart-like run this summer to turn the Chase standings on it's ear, but the wins have been reasonably distributed among a handful of drivers so far (Johnson twice; Kenseth, Kahne, Ku.Busch, and Stewart all once). Johnson has been a contender in all of those races except for Bristol. Greg Biffle has been a contender in every race (leading laps) until he came to Martinsville (no laps led and a 31st place finish).

Arguably, Biffle is the biggest "surprise" of this season, after being the second place finisher last year and having the most wins (6). Will Biffle find the consistency he has been lacking (with only two top 10's at Las Vegas and Bristol but three finishes worse than 30th (Daytona, California, and Martinsville) as well)? Despite leading the second-most laps (355) on the season (only Tony Stewart has more with a dominating 685), Biffle doesn't have much to show for his efforts. The bonus points (5 for a led lap and 5 more for most laps led, which he has earned twice) are helping keep Biffle in contention (in the 18th position), but finishes near the end of the field (in the 30th+ place) will not get him into the Chase unless he offsets them with wins. His breakthroughs might be coming with Texas (once pre-Chase) and Michigan (twice this summer) not to mention that he also won at Darlington and Dover between those two events.

Carl Edwards may be even more disappointed with his current standing in 19th in the points given that he has two top 5's but also two 40th+ finishes to go with them. He started the season from the ultimate hole (last at Daytona) but has worked his way up since then. A third place finish at California was a huge boost, but consecutive poor finishes of 26th and 40th at Las Vegas and Atlanta (where he swept last year) had to be big letdowns. Fortunately, Edwards seems to keep his optimism and rebounded with a career-best fourth at Bristol and then a respectable 16th at Martinsville. The biggest challenge that both Edwards and Biffle now face is how to work their way back into the top 10 or to stay within 400 points of the lead. Both drivers know that these alternating good and bad finishes will not get the job done.

I am holding out hope that greater than 10 drivers can make the Chase this year, if nothing more than keep the excitement level higher. Besides that fact, there seem to be Chase-worthy drivers who failed last year (like Gordon and Earnhardt Jr) but are heading the right way
again. One driver who appears highly unlikely to repeat as a Chase contender: Jeremy Mayfield. Despite "backing" his way in each of the last two seasons (though not to discount his achievement), Mayfield has been a non-competitive threat once the real Chase happened both times. His standing in the 30's (33rd) and now 453 points back paints a pretty gloomy picture.

My hopeful for comeback driver this year was Bobby Labonte, but the Petty Enterprises crew hasn't turned the corner yet. Labonte has contended and even netted a top 5 at Bristol, yet his mechanical failures (like teammate Kyle Petty) are plaguing good runs otherwise. I think he can still manage his first win in some time with the new crew, but the points standing won't be there this season.

Sunday, April 02, 2006

Stewart Stomps Field to Martinsville Win; Johnson Regains Points Lead

Sunday's race was indicative of the adage that "the more things change, the more they stay the same." Previous winners were the frontrunners for much of race, while a former winner (Tony Stewart) captured another Martinsville grandfather clock trophy. The top three finishers (Stewart, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson) were all former victors at the half-mile paper clip track. A few newer names made their mark in the Nextel Cup race today as well, most notably the fifth-place finisher Kyle Busch (his first top 5 at Martinsville) and Brian Vickers (in eighth place, who notched his second top 10 of the season and best career finish at the track). Martinsville was clearly a Hendrick-dominated track, with all four team drivers finishing inside the top 10 (Gordon, Johnson, Busch, and Vickers in second, third, fifth, and eighth, respectively).

There were three distinct parts to the story at Martinsville: the beginning, the middle, and the end. The beginning was marked with a number of drivers getting into traffic and doing some damage. The first accident involved high-ranking rookie Clint Bowyer getting tangled in a logjam on the race’s second lap that also caused significant damage to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Robby Gordon. Gordon's car would be the first to retire from the race only a handful of laps later, yet another disappointing finish for him. While Jimmie Johnson led from the opening (and was the race’s polesitter), Jamie McMurray took over the lead on the 28th lap. Shortly thereafter, Tony Stewart took over the lead from McMurray on lap 34 and stayed there for a long time (nearly 200 laps). One of the race favorites – Jeff Gordon – looked to have his race hopes hurt after blowing a tire on lap 89, but, thankfully for him, he was able to avoid hitting the wall and made it to his pit without losing a lap (thanks to pitting while the pits were closed and taking the end-of-lead lap penalty).

The middle of the race was defined by Stewart, who led the most laps in the race (288 laps in total). During this racing mid-section, the cautions were fewer between, although a few notables (such as Greg Biffle, Bobby Labonte, and Kyle Petty, among others) experienced a combination of problems to hurt their finishes for the day. Despite gains from last week in Bristol, the Petty drivers (Labonte and Petty) were hurt by mechanical failures to have disappointing results once again. Today was also a markedly bad day for Roush Racing, with the only Top 10 finish by Jamie McMurray (9th). Both Biffle and Matt Kenseth were banged up in crashes to finish with poor 31st and 24th place finishes, respectively. Mark Martin and Carl Edwards overcame some racing problems to crack the top 20 but not the top 10 (13th for Martin, to move into second place in the points standings beyond Johnson, and 16th for Edwards, who moved back into the top 20 in the points after the race).

From the mid-point of the race until near the finish, it appeared that Jimmie Johnson was in control of his destiny. He led an impressive 195 laps in total but relinquished the lead for good on lap 475 to Stewart. Jeff Gordon was able to get past his teammate into second place only 10 laps later and appeared to be in position to challenge Stewart for his eighth career win at Martinsville. However, two late cautions -- one for Joe Nemechek on lap 486 and the second for Matt Kenseth on lap 493 (and the red flag to hold the field until three laps were left on the restart) -- seemed to seal the fate of Gordon. On the final restart, the top 5 was holding closely together until Gordon wiggled a bit out of Turn 4 heading towards the white flag. It was Stewart's race to lose at that point, which did not happen for the strong closer.

Tony Stewart collected career win number 25, fourth among active drivers (behind only Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, and Dale Jarrett) and into a tie for 22nd on the all-time wins list (tied with legends Joe Weatherly and Jim Paschal). This is Stewart's second career Martinsville win, with his previous victory in the fall 2000 race.

The points battle had a few shake-ups around the top, with Matt Kenseth slipping out of the top spot (after his late race crash) into third and Jimmie Johnson recapturing the points lead. Kasey Kahne lost two spots as well with his mechanical failure late in the Martinsville race as well. The fifth through seventh spots remained the same (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Jeff Gordon) while Tony Stewart jumped up one spot into eighth. Elliott Sadler found himself back in the top 10 with a top 10 Martinsville finish, while Casey Mears may soon find himself out of the top 10, now in the 10th spot but sliding back five spots over the past few weeks.

Jamie McMurray was the day's biggest points standings gainer, moving seven place higher into 17th ahead of teammates Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards (in 18th and 19th, respectively). Kurt Busch, who found himself much further down in the standings only three races ago, is now in the 14th spot and climbing. Robby Gordon, with his last place finish, was the day's biggest loser, now in 27th place after dropping seven spots. The Petty team suffered casualties on the track and in the standings, with Kyle now in the 26th spot (one spot lower) and Bobby Labonte three spots lower into the dangerous 35th spot (the last guaranteed qualifier into upcoming races). David Stremme, who is having a difficult rookie season, will probably not like the fact that he remains outside the top 35, despite moving up one spot on the day into 37th.

All in all, Martinsville probably lived up to it's typical short-track expectation, although the middle of the race wasn't nearly as enjoyable as the rough-and-tumble beginning and the bumping-and-banging finish. Generally, the driving was much cleaner than at Bristol from last week, while the circuit moves to one of the intermediates (Texas Motor Speedway) next week. Look for the Roush camp to rebound at TMS based on their historical success at the mile and half tracks (including Greg Biffle's win there last year in the spring and Carl Edwards finding victory lane in the fall).

The pieces for the Chase are starting to fall into place, but this race is far from over. Stay tuned.