After Richmond's race ended Sunday afternoon (instead of late Saturday as originally scheduled), there were no surprises for entrants into the Chase field. Yes, the most-disappointing miss was Kasey Kahne (with 2 wins, the only multiple-race winner not in), but his fate was almost set before he ever got to Richmond with multiple poor showings leading up to and including the Race to the Chase races. David Ragan came up short with a damaged race car, but his effort is commendable regardless of not making the field.
The simple rundown of who's in (with new point totals):
1. Kyle Busch - 5080
2. Carl Edwards - 5050 (minus 10 points for Las Vegas infraction)
3. Jimmie Johnson - 5040 (10 nice additional points for Richmond win)
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 5010
5. Clint Bowyer - 5010
6. Denny Hamlin - 5010
7. Jeff Burton - 5010
8. Tony Stewart - 5000
9. Greg Biffle - 5000
10. Jeff Gordon - 5000
11. Kevin Harvick - 5000
12. Matt Kenseth - 5000
The sort order for the multiple drivers at 5010 (with 1 win) and at 5000 (with no wins) is by number of runner-up finishes, third-place, etc. until ties are broken.
I was going to break down somewhat "statistically" whose chances are best, but I think, given an emphasis on "momentum" as a factor that the numbers won't necessarily bear out, Jimmie Johnson is poised for a three-peat. That statement comes with some consternation on my part, as Johnson is my wife's favorite but Tony Stewart (still winless on the season) is mine. Johnson is peaking at just the right time with favorable tracks (as evidenced the past few seasons) ahead on the schedule. Historically, Johnson can dominate the 1.5-milers that make up so much of the Chase, specifically Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta, Kansas, and Homestead. With a win at Richmond and previous win at Phoenix, the shorter tracks (including Phoenix again as well as Dover) will probably suit him, too. That's not to say Johnson is going to run away with this championship ... but things are certainly favorable for his cause.
The two most-publicized names, for good reason, have been Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards ... but are both limping into the Chase? OK, limping is a stretch, given that the two combined won over half of the first 26 races (with 8 to Busch and 6 to Edwards) and both won races preceding Johnson's mini-flourish (with Edwards pulling back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol immediately before and Busch winning Watkins Glen prior to that). Arguably, all three drivers - Johnson, Edwards, and Busch - have a degree of momentum on their sides.
If the three favorites are clearly known, what about everybody else? Well, using history as somewhat of a guide, let's base some prediction of what's to come on earlier season facts. Every Chase track excluding only Kansas and Homestead-Miami has hosted a race this season. Who were the respective winners in Chase-race order?
New Hampshire - Kurt Busch (although Tony Stewart was most dominant and weather determined the outcome)
Dover - Kyle Busch (Greg Biffle led the most laps, but Busch was nearly as dominant in lapping most of the field)
Talladega - Kyle Busch (Tony Stewart but was caught in a race-ending accident)
Lowe's (Charlotte) - Kasey Kahne (Junior led the most laps but had a blown tire ... Stewart was leading near the end but also blew a tire)
Martinsville - Denny Hamlin (Junior led the most laps ... more weather strategy)
Atlanta - Kyle Busch (dominant car, most laps led)
Texas - Carl Edwards (dominant car, most laps led)
Phoenix - Jimmie Johnson (fuel-strategy win ... but a win nonetheless)
On a "wins-basis" alone, Kyle Busch looks pretty favorable with the repeat-track factor (no suprise with his many wins), but the dark-horse candidates are Stewart (who was strong in most of those races but came up short) and even Dale Jr. The best statistical argument would be made on average finish in those 8 races, but even that could be skewed by accident-caused DNF's or other premature failures that changed the outcome for respective Chase drivers.
When all is said and done, the best driver entering the Chase is not guaranteed to win the Chase. The first year of the Chase, 2004, is the best example of this, as Jeff Gordon was best heading in but surprise driver Kurt Busch stole the crown. Arguably, 2005 and 2006 featured the best drivers winning - Stewart and Johnson, respectively - but Gordon was again probably slightly better than Johnson in 2007. What does ALL of this mean for 2008? Who knows!?!
I am going out on a limb here and saying that while the top three drivers are most deserving, a dark horse is going to win this season. Who is that driver going to be? My gut tells me that Jeff Gordon is going to lose the "four-time" moniker and become "five-time" (or, ala the Steelers, "one for the thumb"). I have no fancy statistics to back this up ... or even momentum on his side. Gordon deserves, in this author's not-so-humble opinion, the fifth championship that he should already have. No, he is not 2008's best driver by any measure, but I see a deja vu potential from 2004 for 2008. He is not "entitled" to a title ... but I think it would sum up his career better than going out with a fizzle.
BTW ... if Gordon doesn't win, I'll stick with my original Johnson "momentum / statistical" pick. If Gordon does win, then I'm a genius. ;-)
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Friday, June 13, 2008
Friday the 13th: A Perfect Day for a Move
Ah, the superstitious day of Friday the 13th conjures up images of bad luck, movie horror, and countless potential for mayhem. As of this date, June 13, 2008, which happens to be a Friday, this blog (as well as its counterpart blogs) have moved from the former home of my website (ClubhouseConnection.net, which is now inactive) to Blogspot, which was where they were generated anyway. Hopefully, no bad luck will follow this move, but I hope any former readers are fortunate enough to find their way here. I figure some new content will at least get Google to redirect the old links to these new locations.
There isn't a whole lot new I want to say immediately, especially since I have written anything in eons. When over a year passes (give or take) between posts, you are doing a poor job as a blogger. Given that some bloggers write many times daily, that fact would make me a big slacker.
Since blogging doesn't pay the bills (yet ... or probably ever), look for something slightly more frequent (hopefully) in the future.
Later all...
There isn't a whole lot new I want to say immediately, especially since I have written anything in eons. When over a year passes (give or take) between posts, you are doing a poor job as a blogger. Given that some bloggers write many times daily, that fact would make me a big slacker.
Since blogging doesn't pay the bills (yet ... or probably ever), look for something slightly more frequent (hopefully) in the future.
Later all...
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
NASCAR's Greatest Driver? Gordon Among Greats...
Determining NASCAR's Greatest Driver is not an easy task. As is true in other major sports as well, comparing the greats of any particular era is difficult when they are measured against the greats in other, different eras. The list of career NASCAR victories is an interesting one, considering how different the race schedule looked before and after the Winston Cup “modern” era began.
In all-time victories (1949-present (4/29/2007 race at Talladega)), the list looks like this:
1. Richard Petty – 200
2. David Pearson – 105
3. (tie) Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip – 84
5. Cale Yarborough – 83
6. Jeff Gordon – 77
7. Dale Earnhardt – 76 … and so on
When the list is *trimmed* to the modern era (1972 to present), the result is this:
1. Darrell Waltrip - 84
2. Jeff Gordon – 77
3. Dale Earnhardt – 76
4. Cale Yarborough – 69
5. Richard Petty – 60
The names stay generally the same, but the order looks very different.
Richard Petty’s career victories overlapped the Pre-Modern era (Grand National Series) and the Modern era (Cup series). However, 60 wins is not representative of the wins at “modern” tracks (such as Daytona, Charlotte, Richmond, Martinsville, et.al.) that Petty should be fairly credited with having. Petty began racing in 1959, and a number of tracks where he won between 1960 and 1971 remained on the reduced Cup schedule in 1972. Petty did collect seven total championships, but only four of those came in the modern era.
Equally overlooked, in my opinion, is David Pearson (second-most in all-time wins), who drops out of the top five on the modern era list only because most of his career was in the pre-modern era. Pearson did collect an impressive 45 wins from 1972 to 1980 and won at least one race each of these seasons. Another consideration for Pearson on the career championship list is that he ran a full schedule only four times in his career and won three titles (all pre-modern titles in the late 1960's).
In the case of both Petty and Pearson, I want to dig a level deeper and further analyze the wins of their pre-1972 career to determine which rightfully should count as “modern” wins and better compare both to the likes of Waltrip, Gordon, and Earnhardt.
Richard Petty (1960-1971):
1960 – 2 (Charlotte, Martinsville)
1961 – 2 (Richmond, Charlotte)
1962 – 3 (North Wilkesboro - 2, Martinsville)
1963 – 2 (Martinsville, North Wilkesboro)
1964 – 2 (Daytona, Nashville)
1965 – 1 (Nashville)
1966 – 4 (Daytona, Darlington, Nashville, Atlanta)
1967 – 10 (Martinsville - 2, Richmond - 2, Darlington - 2, Rockingham, Bristol, Nashville, North Wilkesboro)
1968 – 4 (Richmond, Martinsville, North Wilkesboro, Rockingham)
1969 – 5 (Riverside, Martinsville - 2, Dover, Nashville)
1970 – 7 (Rockingham, North Wilkesboro, Riverside, Atlanta, Richmond, Dover, Martinsville)
1971 – 10 (Daytona, Richmond - 2, Rockingham - 2, North Wilkesboro, Martinsville, Nashville, Atlanta, Dover)
Cumulative Total Wins: 52
Revised “Modern” Total: 60 + 52 = 112
Arguably, other tracks where Petty had wins were of substantial length (greater than 1/2 mile) but didn’t survive the Cup cut. Texas World Speedway should probably count for at least one more win in 1971, but I did not count it. Non-paved races were also on the schedule until 1970 (Richmond was not paved until 1968 ), but I did not exclude wins at such tracks.
David Pearson (1961-1971):
1961 – 3 (Charlotte, Daytona, Atlanta)
1962 – 0
1963 – 0
1964 – 1 (Richmond)
1965 – 1 (Richmond)
1966 – 2 (Richmond - 2)
1967 – 1 (Bristol)
1968 – 6 (Bristol - 2, Richmond, North Wilkesboro, Darlington, Nashville)
1969 – 6 (Daytona, Rockingham, Richmond, Bristol, Michigan, North Wilkesboro)
1970 – 1 (Darlington)
1971 – 2 (Daytona, Bristol)
Cumulative Total Wins: 23
Revised “Modern” Total: 45 + 23 = 68
Any of the notes applied to Petty also apply to Pearson.
Now realizing that I should also be fair to Cale Yarborough on the modern wins list, I need to add wins at Atlanta (3 - 1967, 68, 69), Daytona (4 – 1967, 68 – 2, 70), Martinsville (1968 ), Darlington (1968 ), Michigan (2 – 1969 & 70), and Rockingham (1970). That would add 12 wins to the 69 total above for 81 wins (nearly his actual career total). In the same vein, Bobby Allison needs wins added for Rockingham (1967), Bristol (2 – 1969, 70), North Wilkesboro (1969), Richmond (1969), Atlanta (1970), Charlotte (2 – 1970, 71), Dover (1971), Michigan (2 – 1971 x 2), Riverside (1971), Talladega (1971), and Darlington (1971). Allison’s modern wins total (1972 and after) was 55, so 55 + 14 = 69.
Modern wins list (revised):
1. Richard Petty – 112*
2. Darrell Waltrip – 84
3. Cale Yarborough – 81*
4. Jeff Gordon – 77
5. Dale Earnhardt – 76
6. Bobby Allison – 69*
7. David Pearson – 68*
I’m not a big fan of “revisionist” history, but at least this revision helps to put the careers in better perspective for making comparisons.
So, can Jeff Gordon be considered the greatest driver in NASCAR history? I guess it depends on what makes a driver great. His wins total seems almost assuredly headed towards passing Darrell Waltrip over the next couple of seasons, but he doesn’t seem likely to ever pass Petty’s mark (definitely not the real number or the revised one).
If championships make the driver, then Petty or Earnhardt are in a virtual tie, but Petty wins a tiebreaker on wins (and winning frequency). Pearson wins hands-down on winning percentage (18.2%) while being so successful in multiple seasons of limited schedules. Waltrip is probably the modern-day best driver until Gordon surpasses his win total … then I think Gordon could rightfully inherit the crown.
There is no right or wrong answer in this one. I’m interested in what you all have to think on the subject. Feel free to chime in.
In all-time victories (1949-present (4/29/2007 race at Talladega)), the list looks like this:
1. Richard Petty – 200
2. David Pearson – 105
3. (tie) Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip – 84
5. Cale Yarborough – 83
6. Jeff Gordon – 77
7. Dale Earnhardt – 76 … and so on
When the list is *trimmed* to the modern era (1972 to present), the result is this:
1. Darrell Waltrip - 84
2. Jeff Gordon – 77
3. Dale Earnhardt – 76
4. Cale Yarborough – 69
5. Richard Petty – 60
The names stay generally the same, but the order looks very different.
Richard Petty’s career victories overlapped the Pre-Modern era (Grand National Series) and the Modern era (Cup series). However, 60 wins is not representative of the wins at “modern” tracks (such as Daytona, Charlotte, Richmond, Martinsville, et.al.) that Petty should be fairly credited with having. Petty began racing in 1959, and a number of tracks where he won between 1960 and 1971 remained on the reduced Cup schedule in 1972. Petty did collect seven total championships, but only four of those came in the modern era.
Equally overlooked, in my opinion, is David Pearson (second-most in all-time wins), who drops out of the top five on the modern era list only because most of his career was in the pre-modern era. Pearson did collect an impressive 45 wins from 1972 to 1980 and won at least one race each of these seasons. Another consideration for Pearson on the career championship list is that he ran a full schedule only four times in his career and won three titles (all pre-modern titles in the late 1960's).
In the case of both Petty and Pearson, I want to dig a level deeper and further analyze the wins of their pre-1972 career to determine which rightfully should count as “modern” wins and better compare both to the likes of Waltrip, Gordon, and Earnhardt.
Richard Petty (1960-1971):
1960 – 2 (Charlotte, Martinsville)
1961 – 2 (Richmond, Charlotte)
1962 – 3 (North Wilkesboro - 2, Martinsville)
1963 – 2 (Martinsville, North Wilkesboro)
1964 – 2 (Daytona, Nashville)
1965 – 1 (Nashville)
1966 – 4 (Daytona, Darlington, Nashville, Atlanta)
1967 – 10 (Martinsville - 2, Richmond - 2, Darlington - 2, Rockingham, Bristol, Nashville, North Wilkesboro)
1968 – 4 (Richmond, Martinsville, North Wilkesboro, Rockingham)
1969 – 5 (Riverside, Martinsville - 2, Dover, Nashville)
1970 – 7 (Rockingham, North Wilkesboro, Riverside, Atlanta, Richmond, Dover, Martinsville)
1971 – 10 (Daytona, Richmond - 2, Rockingham - 2, North Wilkesboro, Martinsville, Nashville, Atlanta, Dover)
Cumulative Total Wins: 52
Revised “Modern” Total: 60 + 52 = 112
Arguably, other tracks where Petty had wins were of substantial length (greater than 1/2 mile) but didn’t survive the Cup cut. Texas World Speedway should probably count for at least one more win in 1971, but I did not count it. Non-paved races were also on the schedule until 1970 (Richmond was not paved until 1968 ), but I did not exclude wins at such tracks.
David Pearson (1961-1971):
1961 – 3 (Charlotte, Daytona, Atlanta)
1962 – 0
1963 – 0
1964 – 1 (Richmond)
1965 – 1 (Richmond)
1966 – 2 (Richmond - 2)
1967 – 1 (Bristol)
1968 – 6 (Bristol - 2, Richmond, North Wilkesboro, Darlington, Nashville)
1969 – 6 (Daytona, Rockingham, Richmond, Bristol, Michigan, North Wilkesboro)
1970 – 1 (Darlington)
1971 – 2 (Daytona, Bristol)
Cumulative Total Wins: 23
Revised “Modern” Total: 45 + 23 = 68
Any of the notes applied to Petty also apply to Pearson.
Now realizing that I should also be fair to Cale Yarborough on the modern wins list, I need to add wins at Atlanta (3 - 1967, 68, 69), Daytona (4 – 1967, 68 – 2, 70), Martinsville (1968 ), Darlington (1968 ), Michigan (2 – 1969 & 70), and Rockingham (1970). That would add 12 wins to the 69 total above for 81 wins (nearly his actual career total). In the same vein, Bobby Allison needs wins added for Rockingham (1967), Bristol (2 – 1969, 70), North Wilkesboro (1969), Richmond (1969), Atlanta (1970), Charlotte (2 – 1970, 71), Dover (1971), Michigan (2 – 1971 x 2), Riverside (1971), Talladega (1971), and Darlington (1971). Allison’s modern wins total (1972 and after) was 55, so 55 + 14 = 69.
Modern wins list (revised):
1. Richard Petty – 112*
2. Darrell Waltrip – 84
3. Cale Yarborough – 81*
4. Jeff Gordon – 77
5. Dale Earnhardt – 76
6. Bobby Allison – 69*
7. David Pearson – 68*
I’m not a big fan of “revisionist” history, but at least this revision helps to put the careers in better perspective for making comparisons.
So, can Jeff Gordon be considered the greatest driver in NASCAR history? I guess it depends on what makes a driver great. His wins total seems almost assuredly headed towards passing Darrell Waltrip over the next couple of seasons, but he doesn’t seem likely to ever pass Petty’s mark (definitely not the real number or the revised one).
If championships make the driver, then Petty or Earnhardt are in a virtual tie, but Petty wins a tiebreaker on wins (and winning frequency). Pearson wins hands-down on winning percentage (18.2%) while being so successful in multiple seasons of limited schedules. Waltrip is probably the modern-day best driver until Gordon surpasses his win total … then I think Gordon could rightfully inherit the crown.
There is no right or wrong answer in this one. I’m interested in what you all have to think on the subject. Feel free to chime in.
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