The last time I posted on the subject of the Chase was after the Atlanta race, before the short-track effect could occur (back-to-back Bristol and Martinsville weekends). Here was the top 10 list after Atlanta (first 4 races):
Pos. / Driver / Points / Pts. Behind [after first 4 races]
1 Jimmie Johnson 690 Leader
2 Kasey Kahne 640 -50
3 Matt Kenseth 612 -78
4 Mark Martin 600 -90
5 Casey Mears 554 -136
6 Jeff Gordon 539 -151
7 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 534 -156
8 Kyle Busch 530 -160
9 Dale Jarrett 490 -200
10 Clint Bowyer 471 -219
I mentioned then as I will mention now that the top 4 spots looked like they were in pretty good shape given the past two years of Chase history on their side (only Kasey Kahne, as a rookie in 2004, failed to make the Chase from a position that high). The 5th through 8th spots looked pretty good, too, although Casey Mears was clearly the biggest surprise in that range. Again, historically, those positions have made the Chase (with only two years of data as a basis).
Through 6 races (after Martinsville), the top 4 drivers remain the same, but their order is a little different (Martin up to 2nd and Kahne down to 4th). Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon have solidified their spots, moving up closer to the top and running stronger. Tony Stewart jumped back onto this list after sitting in 12th only a few races earlier (California and Las Vegas problems created a hole to climb out but not unusual for early season in Stewart's career). Elliott Sadler has been quietly running better as well, including a top 10 at Martinsville. Casey Mears is now the biggest question mark; after notching top 10's in each of his first three races, he has failed to run better than 20th since. More analysis follows the list below...
Pos Driver Points Bhnd/Wins/Top5/Top10
1 Jimmie Johnson 933 Ldr 2 4 5
2 Mark Martin 874 -59 0 1 4
3 Matt Kenseth 873 -60 1 3 3
4 Kasey Kahne 832 -101 1 3 4
5 Kyle Busch 832 -101 0 2 4
6 D Earnhardt Jr 824 -109 0 2 3
7 Jeff Gordon 814 -119 0 3 3
8 Tony Stewart 791 -142 1 3 3
9 Elliott Sadler 735 -198 0 1 2
10 Casey Mears 724 -209 0 1 3
--- (Top 10) ---
11 Dale Jarrett 716 -217 0 0 2
12 Kevin Harvick 699 -234 0 1 2
13 Ryan Newman 668 -265 0 1 2
14 Kurt Busch 661 -272 1 1 1
15 Brian Vickers 650 -283 0 0 2
16 Clint Bowyer* 644 -289 0 0 1
17 Jamie McMurray 623 -310 0 0 2
18 Greg Biffle 615 -318 0 0 2
19 Carl Edwards 602 -331 0 2 2
20 M. Truex Jr.* 597 -336 0 0 0
21 Jeff Burton 591 -342 0 1 2
22 J.J. Yeley* 589 -344 0 0 1
23 Denny Hamlin* 582 -351 0 0 1
24 Reed Sorenson* 577 -356 0 0 1
25 Joe Nemechek 555 -378 0 0 0
26 Kyle Petty 539 -394 0 0 1
27 Robby Gordon 534 -399 0 0 0
---(within 400 points)---
Mathematically, 27 drivers are still Chase eligible right now, with Robby Gordon on the lowest edge at 399 points behind. The "hope" has to remain for these guys (at least for a few more races) as Matt Kenseth was in 21st place, 383 points behind at this point last season. Kenseth had to run a great stretch until the last race before the Chase (Richmond) to make up that sizeable deficit ... a hard task for the guys noted above. Realistically, he never did make up the entire gap, as he fell further behind the leader(s) but got closer to the final 10th place spot (over 650 points back, in 9th). Two years ago, Mark Martin was the lowest ranked outside the top 10 who ultimately made it (in 14th, 221 points back).
The real question then becomes how far ahead will the leader(s) be from the rest of the pack and will the 400-pt rule matter versus the top 10? In 2004, only seven (7) drivers were less than 400 points behind leader Jeff Gordon after the 26th race. In 2005, the spread was even worse with only three (3) drivers less than 400 points behind Tony Stewart, as he was lapping the field at 180 points ahead of Greg Biffle in second place. In 2006, Jimmie Johnson is starting the season off looking like the dominant player once again (much like he looked in the early going last year) in racking up top 5 finishes (4 through 6 this year and last year). The only difference between Johnson in 2006 and at the same point in 2005? He didn't miss a top 10 finish in 2005
until the 8th race (at Phoenix). Johnson finally began "cooling off" some into the summer months as Biffle was winning (starting at Texas, winning 4 of the next 9 races through Michigan) and then Stewart picked up where Biffle left off (winning at Infineon, with 5 of 7 races as wins through Watkins Glen).
The remainder of the "Race to the Chase" is clearly still up in the air, but we do have 6 of the 26 (almost one-quarter of the schedule) done until the "playoff" begins. Someone could go on a Stewart-like run this summer to turn the Chase standings on it's ear, but the wins have been reasonably distributed among a handful of drivers so far (Johnson twice; Kenseth, Kahne, Ku.Busch, and Stewart all once). Johnson has been a contender in all of those races except for Bristol. Greg Biffle has been a contender in every race (leading laps) until he came to Martinsville (no laps led and a 31st place finish).
Arguably, Biffle is the biggest "surprise" of this season, after being the second place finisher last year and having the most wins (6). Will Biffle find the consistency he has been lacking (with only two top 10's at Las Vegas and Bristol but three finishes worse than 30th (Daytona, California, and Martinsville) as well)? Despite leading the second-most laps (355) on the season (only Tony Stewart has more with a dominating 685), Biffle doesn't have much to show for his efforts. The bonus points (5 for a led lap and 5 more for most laps led, which he has earned twice) are helping keep Biffle in contention (in the 18th position), but finishes near the end of the field (in the 30th+ place) will not get him into the Chase unless he offsets them with wins. His breakthroughs might be coming with Texas (once pre-Chase) and Michigan (twice this summer) not to mention that he also won at Darlington and Dover between those two events.
Carl Edwards may be even more disappointed with his current standing in 19th in the points given that he has two top 5's but also two 40th+ finishes to go with them. He started the season from the ultimate hole (last at Daytona) but has worked his way up since then. A third place finish at California was a huge boost, but consecutive poor finishes of 26th and 40th at Las Vegas and Atlanta (where he swept last year) had to be big letdowns. Fortunately, Edwards seems to keep his optimism and rebounded with a career-best fourth at Bristol and then a respectable 16th at Martinsville. The biggest challenge that both Edwards and Biffle now face is how to work their way back into the top 10 or to stay within 400 points of the lead. Both drivers know that these alternating good and bad finishes will not get the job done.
I am holding out hope that greater than 10 drivers can make the Chase this year, if nothing more than keep the excitement level higher. Besides that fact, there seem to be Chase-worthy drivers who failed last year (like Gordon and Earnhardt Jr) but are heading the right way
again. One driver who appears highly unlikely to repeat as a Chase contender: Jeremy Mayfield. Despite "backing" his way in each of the last two seasons (though not to discount his achievement), Mayfield has been a non-competitive threat once the real Chase happened both times. His standing in the 30's (33rd) and now 453 points back paints a pretty gloomy picture.
My hopeful for comeback driver this year was Bobby Labonte, but the Petty Enterprises crew hasn't turned the corner yet. Labonte has contended and even netted a top 5 at Bristol, yet his mechanical failures (like teammate Kyle Petty) are plaguing good runs otherwise. I think he can still manage his first win in some time with the new crew, but the points standing won't be there this season.
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