Monday, March 27, 2006

Nextel Cup Standings (Through Bristol) - The Chase is taking shape ...

The standings look a bit different than they did before Sunday's race, particularly in the closeness in points with Johnson's struggles in the race. Here is the Top 10 in Nextel Cup points after five races:

1 Matt Kenseth 782 Leader
2 Kasey Kahne 774 -8
3 Jimmie Johnson 763 -19
4 Mark Martin 750 -32
5 Kyle Busch 677 -105
6 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 664 -118
7 Jeff Gordon 644 -138
8 Casey Mears 642 -140
9 Tony Stewart 601 -181
10 Dale Jarrett 593 -189

The margin between first and tenth spots narrowed from 219 before the race to the margin shown above (189) after it. Only one name dropped out off the list -- Clint Bowyer -- while Tony Stewart makes his first reappearance since Daytona. The list of "lurkers" on the outside looking in got closer as well.
Before the race:
17 Ryan Newman 421 -269
21 Greg Biffle 394 -296
23 Kevin Harvick 378 -312
27 Kurt Busch 346 -344
30 Carl Edwards 327 -363
After the race:
12 Ryan Newman 559 -223
13 Kevin Harvick 553 -229
15 Greg Biffle 545 –237
16 Kurt Busch 531 -251
22 Carl Edwards 487 -295

I think these five drivers, all (except Harvick) representative of last year's Chase contenders, are moving in the right direction. I think it is even more interesting to note that the more things change, with this year's influx of rookies, the more they stay the same. Chase drivers from 2004 and 2005 are the majority of the top 15 right now. Check out this list

Current Top 15 and status in previous two Chases (04 and 05)
1 Matt Kenseth 04 & 05
2 Kasey Kahne N/A
3 Jimmie Johnson 04 & 05
4 Mark Martin 04 & 05
5 Kyle Busch N/A
6 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 04
7 Jeff Gordon 04
8 Casey Mears N/A
9 Tony Stewart 04 & 05
10 Dale Jarrett N/A

11 Elliott Sadler 04
12 Ryan Newman 04 & 05
13 Kevin Harvick N/A
14 Clint Bowyer N/A (Rookie)

15 Greg Biffle 05
(16 Kurt Busch 04 & 05)


There are only a few notable names who were in the Chase over the past two seasons not on the list above: Rusty Wallace (05, retired), Carl Edwards (05, not far behind, now in 22nd), and Jeremy Mayfield (04 & 05 - way back in 34th and not looking promising to be one of the handful to make it three straight years).

As the expression goes, the cream rises to the top, and these drivers are proving it once again. The challenge is now becoming more good drivers trying to get into the Chase. I think that this season has the distinct possibility of being the FIRST to have more than 10 drivers make it into the Championship race. All 16 drivers listed above truly have a chance to be there after Richmond in September. Casey Mears and Clint Bowyer may be shaky, as they have been slipping over the past couple of weeks, but there is plenty of time for the standings to shake themselves.

Just when you think a guy like Jimmie Johnson might start to spread the points again, a race like Bristol reminds us that the contenders are still around and anything can still happen.

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