Given the excitement generated by the previous two Atlanta races in the other two series leading up to the Nextel Cup culmination on Sunday, the weather proved to be the spoiler in allowing a large TV audience see what should be (or could have been) a fun race. The Atlanta Motor Speedway usually provides exciting racing action, particularly given that it is generally considered the fastest non-restrictor plate track on the circuit. Speeds at Atlanta are potentially faster than the cars can generate at tracks like Daytona and Talladega, where they are able to run faster but are speed-limited by air-limiting restrictor plates (reducing horsepower).
In any case, the Golden Corral 500 is now scheduled for late morning on Monday (11 AM EST) barring any additional weather delays. If the weather report is to be believed, another rainout is possible and could push the race into Tuesday. Thankfully, the next race is in Bristol, just a hop, skip, and jump up the road and conveniently located triangularly with home base in the Charlotte area from Atlanta. The trucks don't race at the spring event in Bristol, so there shouldn't be any interference from that aspect.
Given that I cannot comment on any action from the race that wasn't, I will have to save that commentary until the race is run (either Monday or after). I already commented on the state of the standings in my previous post, but the fourth race of the season is clearly not the "do or die" stage of the season. Realistically, we shouldn't even be discussing the "Chase for the Cup" considerations until we get at least to the halfway point of the "Race to the Chase" (don't you just love those slogans?). Given that we have a 36 race schedule and only the last 10 make up the exclusive Chase, 26 races make up the Chase Race. 13 races into the season would bring us to ... one moment while I consult my handy racing schedule ... the first Dover race at the beginning of June. As the ardent fans may recall, last year's champion (Tony Stewart) was in the top ten after that race last year (although he was in a precarious position, falling out a few weeks later but rebounding), and fellow Chase contender Matt Kenseth was off the radar completely after having a lackluster start out of the gates. The Dover race marks roughly 1/3 of the schedule down and 2/3 to go but, more importantly, only 1/2 the schedule left to make the Chase (and the big dollars and prestige). A driver like Elliott Sadler looked to be in prime position at this stage last year and then slowly faded out of contention.
I recall attending the Dover race in June 2005 and seeing Greg Biffle win his fourth race of the season. He clearly was the driver in the "driver's seat" taking over the points lead only a short time later in the season. An interesting note: 8 of the 10 drivers in the top 10 after the Dover race last season made the Chase. Another interesting note: 8 of the 10 drivers in the top 10 after Dover in 2004 also made the Chase. IF you are a driver in the position at that stage, you should feel confident but maybe not TOO confident. One common denominator in both notes: Kevin Harvick. Harvick was in the tenth spot last season and in the ninth spot one season earlier. In both cases Harvick would fade out of the top 10 by the time the Chase began. The other two drivers who failed to make the Chase after this point: the aforementioned Sadler (2005) and Bobby Labonte (2004). Do you all remember that Bobby Labonte, before his career with Joe Gibbs Racing disintegrated? For two drivers in each season to have failed to make it means two drivers succeeded simultaneously. Who were they? Matt Kenseth in 2005 and Mark Martin in 2004 both pulled off the comeback, in similar fashion. But, one driver, Jeremy Mayfield, did it in both seasons. The Mayfield approach is not recommended, given that he essentially backed his way in both times (with late victories preceding the Chase, at Richmond (the last chance) in 2004 and at Michigan (two races earlier) in 2005), but then Mayfield was a complete non-factor in both Chases to date. Momentum and consistency are important - the late addition driver (which happens to have been Mayfield both times) hasn't mattered for the Championship.
I think the position at the midway point of the Chase Race is also indicative of something else (although two data points is not much to draw on): the leader doesn't win the championship. Dale Earnhardt Jr was leading at that point in 2004, but Kurt Busch, the sixth place driver, won the Chase. Jimmie Johnson was the leader in 2005, but Tony Stewart, the fifth place driver, won the Chase. When the points get reset starting at New Hampshire in September, it truly becomes anyone's chance within those 10 drivers. Kurt Busch was in the seventh position at the start of the 2004 Chase but won anyway. Tony Stewart was ultimately in first place at the start of the 2005 Chase and went on to win convincingly. Both approaches resulted in Championships but couldn't have been more different otherwise. If the points had not been reset in 2004, Jeff Gordon wins his fifth championship (which would have been remarkable on his way to possibly equaling or passing the all-time mark). If the points had not been reset in 2005, the result doesn't change other than Tony Stewart wins by a much bigger margin (making the last few races less meaningful). Ultimately, the TV ratings make the difference in this scenario because the 2004 title chase would have been close (between teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon) but was even closer with four drivers (Johnson, Gordon, Busch and Martin) in realistic contention that final day. Five drivers (with Earnhardt Jr) were in contention until the 2nd to last race that first year of the Chase. The 2005 title chase would not have been close if Stewart's points were not reset versus the field, while three drivers (Stewart, Biffle, and Edwards) were in contention up to the final race with the Chase.
I will look into the Chase format a bit further in an upcoming post. Time is too short for tonight, so I bid you good night.
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