We have seen an interesting start to the 2006 NASCAR Nextel Cup season so far. Most notably, the top 10 list in points is a little bit of "old" mixed with an interesting bit of "new" to provide a collective new look running the show. So, who makes up the top 10 right now?
Pos. / Driver / Points / Pts. Behind [after first 4 races]
1 Jimmie Johnson 690 Leader
2 Kasey Kahne 640 -50
3 Matt Kenseth 612 -78
4 Mark Martin 600 -90
5 Casey Mears 554 -136
6 Jeff Gordon 539 -151
7 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 534 -156
8 Kyle Busch 530 -160
9 Dale Jarrett 490 -200
10 Clint Bowyer 471 -219
The "old" includes top 10 stalwart Jimmie Johnson, doing what he seems to do with ease, as well as the return of past resident Jeff Gordon, who used to make the top 10 his own pretty much year in and year out until last season. The other "perennials" include Matt Kenseth (minus early last season), Mark Martin (one can see why he has a hard time retiring), and probably Dale Earnhardt Jr (who appears to be regaining the "consistency" he had before last season). Dale Jarrett makes a welcome return to the elite, but he was there at times last season as well and is a past champion. The "new" is obviously the rest of the list. Kasey Kahne already had high expectations following his ROY performance in 2004, but, as bad as 2005 seemed to be, most wouldn't have expected a 2nd place performance with a win so far. Casey Mears may finally be coming into his own in NASCAR after previous experience in open-wheel racing -- maybe McMurray's old #42 ride is better than his previous #41 as well. Kyle Busch is clearly finding his comfort zone, following 2 wins in the 2nd half of last season doesn't make his position all that surprising. Clint Bowyer may be the most surprising to be in the top 10 this early, given that he is ahead of his fellow rookies as well as ahead of his teammates (Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick).
Speaking of Jeff Burton, 2006 may be his "renaissance" year, running in a strong 11th place. I like his chances of getting back into the top 10 after slipping out after the Atlanta race. The list after Burton reads like the "who's who" of those we are accustomed of seeing in the top 10 -- reigning champion Tony Stewart (12th), Elliott Sadler (13th), Ryan Newman (17th), and last year's runner-up Greg Biffle (21st). There are only four drivers I haven't named so far who were in the Chase last year but are not better than the 21st position this year. One of those drivers (Rusty Wallace) is retired, so he really doesn't count. The other three -- Kurt Busch (27th, driving Rusty's car), Car Edwards (30th), and Jeremy Mayfield (34th, maybe driving Kahne's old car) -- are off the radar at the moment. Busch is not looking strong in his new ride while the car he left (now with Jamie McMurray, in the 16th spot) is doing better. Edwards has had nothing but bad luck strike him so far, including a last place DNF at Daytona and a near-last 40th at Atlanta (which he swept last year) after a pit road altercation with Dave Blaney. Mayfield truthfully doesn't seem like he belonged in the top 10 either of the last two seasons, but he also is a better driver than the 34th spot in which he resides.
Do I think the current crop in the top 10 will make the Chase? Only time will tell, but for perspective, here were the standings after 4 races in 2005:
1 Jimmie Johnson 680 Leader
2 Greg Biffle 598 -82
3 Carl Edwards 593 -87
4 Kurt Busch 577 -103
5 Mark Martin 539 -141
6 Ryan Newman 515 -165
7 Tony Stewart 514 -166
8 Elliott Sadler 482 -198
9 Rusty Wallace 477 -203
10 Jamie McMurray 475 -205
11 Kevin Harvick 469 -211
12 Jeff Gordon 464 -216
Interesting ... every name in that list nade the Chase except for the #10 spot (Matt Kenseth replaced McMurray). Where was Kenseth at that point in the standings? 31st (there is still hope for those guys we mentioned earlier).
OK, that was 2005, but what about 2004?
1 Matt Kenseth 673 Leader
2 Tony Stewart 591 -82
3 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 583 -90
4 Kasey Kahne 550 -123
5 Jeff Gordon 543 -130
6 Kurt Busch 527 -146
7 Jeremy Mayfield 514 -159
8 Elliott Sadler 481 -192
9 Jimmie Johnson 480 -193
10 Bobby Labonte 469 -204
Once again, interesting ... every name here made the list except for 2: Kahne and Labonte (remember those days for him). Who replaced them? Ryan Newman (in 11th) and Mark Martin (in 16th).
We have limited history (only two seasons) of Chase qualification, but we might be able to determine something from this limited data – most of the guys in the current top 10 will probably be there in September (when the Chase begins). Matt Kenseth had to overcome a lot to crack the top 10 last season, and he was 136 points behind 10th spot at this stage last year. While I have a hard time seeing Clint Bowyer making the Chase and possibly Dale Jarrett as well, the remaining 8 look pretty strong at this point. For Kahne, Mears, and the younger Busch, they at least have some history on their side saying they should make it, but, in Kahne's case, he can use history to also say nothing is certain (i.e. 2004).
Only time, and the remaining 22 races before the Chase, will tell.
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